Sunday December 21st

Welcome to Red State Finance — where Turning Point USA is busy turning on itself, everyone’s fighting over microphones instead of messages, and somehow that still wasn’t the most uncomfortable thing to watch this week.

Because once you step outside the media bubble, this week was a reminder that humanity is not okay.

A shooting at Bondi Beach. Shootings at Brown and MIT.
A man stabbed in New York City for simply being Jewish.
Hollywood director Rob Reiner and his wife murdered by their own son.
And then Donald Trump, unfortunately, demonstrated exactly how not to react publicly to a brutal murder.

So yes — thank God Christmas is next week.
At least for a few days, we can all argue about travel delays, and whether Die Hard is a Christmas movie instead of whatever this was.

Politics & Policy

Turns out the FBI wasn’t exactly confident it had probable cause to raid Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home back in 2022. Newly declassified documents show agents raised concerns internally — then proceeded anyway after pressure from Joe Biden’s Justice Department. Trust restored.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says real affordability relief is coming, with a “substantial drop” in inflation ahead — assuming Democrats don’t derail things by shutting down the government in January. Big “don’t touch anything” energy.

Trump is also in the middle of reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug. “We are looking at that very strongly,” he said. We all know what that means.

And former President Joe Biden has requested executive privilege amid congressional investigations into his administration’s use of the autopen. The Trump administration promptly said no. Turns out the magic pen doesn’t come with lifetime immunity.

Markets & Money

A CNBC economics reporter who spent March warning America about Trump’s tariff agenda looked visibly stunned this week while delivering better-than-expected inflation numbers live on air. Reality has a way of interrupting narratives.

Not so upbeat: older Americans lost up to $81.5 billion to financial fraud over the past year, according to the FTC — nearly four times what seniors were losing in 2020. Scammers are scaling faster than most startups.

On the other end of the risk spectrum, Michael Saylor just dropped another $1 billion on Bitcoin as Grayscale predicts a new all-time high within six months. Conviction is easy when you’ve already won capitalism.

PayPal also announced plans to launch a bank for small businesses, offering lending and interest-bearing savings accounts. Because if there’s one thing small businesses love, it’s another “simple” financial product.

Business & Culture

Jobs anxiety is back on the menu as unemployment jumps to a four-year high, with 7.8 million Americans now actively looking for work. Turns out “soft landing” is a moving target.

Philadelphia is also doing its best impression of a Zoom background. More than five years after the pandemic, it ranks second-to-last among major cities for office occupancy — with just 40.3% of employees showing up on the slowest day and 51.2% on the busiest. Brotherly love, minimal attendance.

Fannie Mae is officially abandoning its San Francisco office for Birmingham, Alabama — trading woke zip codes for lower costs, real growth, and functional cities. A trend, not a coincidence.

And thanks to Trump’s tariffs driving up import costs, a certain ‘Scandinavian furniture company’ is now sourcing more products in the United States. Accidentally pro-manufacturing strikes again.

Winners:

Elon Musk: Musk’s net worth just sailed past $600 billion, making him worth double the next richest person alive (Google cofounder Larry Page). Love him or hate him, capitalism picked a favorite.

Federal Workers: Trump announced Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas will now be federal holidays. Which raises an important question: why was this not already a thing?

Losers:

The Craft Beer Industry: It’s been a brutal year. Over 250 U.S. breweries shut down in the first six months of 2025 alone. Turns out $9 IPAs and shrinking discretionary income don’t mix.

Anyone Holding Crypto (Except the Early Adopters): Not exactly a merry Christmas for most crypto investors, with many assets now well below their old highs. Unless, of course, you bought Bitcoin under $100 — in which case, carry on.

America Decides:

How You Voted Last Week: 64% of you said yes to the government digging through five years of social media to decide who gets in. Border security, but make it digital.

This Week’s Big Issue: The One That Refuses to Go Away…

Before anyone hyperventilates — we’re not going full tinfoil hat here.
This isn’t a theory drop. It’s a read of the room.

We’re simply asking where people actually land after watching how this has unfolded.
Vote honestly.

Liberals continue their undefeated streak of making themselves wildly unlikable.

This week featured a woman berating a Target employee for the crime of wearing a Charlie Kirk T-shirt. In a now-deleted viral video, Michelea Ponce confronted Chico, California Target employee Jeanie Beeman — an elderly worker whose shirt featured a white American flag and the word “Freedom.” Truly dangerous stuff.

Ponce filmed the confrontation, posted it online, and immediately learned the internet works both ways. Supporters of Beeman launched an online fundraiser to help her “take a much-needed vacation and forget the ugliness,” quickly drawing national attention. Meanwhile, the woman who kicked the whole thing off has since deactivated her social media accounts and quietly disappeared from the conversation she so confidently started.

Once again, the lesson remains unchanged: yelling at strangers over shirts is not activism, America still likes decency, and the internet keeps receipts.

The federal government released its first inflation report since the shutdown, offering an updated look at price increases across groceries, clothing, gas, and vehicles. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported November inflation at 2.7%, undercutting expectations for a hotter 3.1% reading that would have marked the highest inflation level in over a year.

The report also showed inflation cooling from the previous 3.0% reading in September, easing fears that price pressures were reaccelerating just as markets were already on edge.

Translation: Inflation coming in lower than expected was enough to flip the market’s mood instantly. Wall Street doesn’t need perfection — it just needs prices to stop getting worse. For now, that box was checked.

Artificial intelligence is increasingly being used to manage investments, analyze risk, and guide financial decisions — and in many cases, it’s starting to outperform human advisers. Unlike people, AI doesn’t panic during market crashes, chase hype at the top, or let emotion influence timing. It follows data, probabilities, and predefined rules, consistently.

Supporters argue that discipline — not intuition — is what drives long-term returns, and that machines are better suited for that job. Critics say human judgment still matters, especially during unpredictable events, but the shift toward automation in finance is accelerating.

Translation: If your financial plan depends on emotion, headlines, or gut instinct, AI may already be a better fit. Markets reward discipline, not feelings — and machines don’t lose their nerve when things get uncomfortable.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says American households could see “very large” tax refunds early next year, thanks to retroactive provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Because the bill passed in July, most workers didn’t adjust their withholding — meaning refunds could be larger when taxes are filed.

Bessent estimates total refunds could reach $100–$150 billion, translating to roughly $1,000–$2,000 per household, depending on income and filing status.

Translation: When tax rules change mid-year and paychecks don’t, refunds get bigger. For millions of households, that could mean an unexpected cash boost just in time for 2026 — whether it goes to savings, debt, or finally fixing something that’s been broken all year.

Most investors don’t lose money because markets move — they lose money because emotions do. Panic selling, chasing headlines, and reacting late usually do more damage than any downturn ever could.

If you care about long-term discipline, data over drama, and a strategy that doesn’t change every time the news cycle does, the message below is worth your time.

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Major U.S. banks have announced plans to shut 311 branches since late August, putting 2025 on track to become the worst year ever for walk-in banking. JPMorgan Chase led the wave with 66 closures, followed by TD Bank, Citizens, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, PNC, and others, according to federal filings.

California and Florida were hit hardest, each losing 28 branches, with New York, Texas, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania close behind. Experts warn the closures disproportionately impact older Americans, rural communities, cash-dependent customers, and anyone who struggles with mobile banking or doesn’t trust apps.

Translation: Banks are quietly walking away from face-to-face service while telling customers to “just use the app.” That works fine — unless you’re older, live outside a major city, rely on cash, or don’t want your entire financial life tied to a smartphone. Convenience for banks, fewer options for everyone else.

Donald Trump announced a proposed $1,776 “warrior dividend” that would be sent to more than one million active-duty service members. The payment is framed as direct recognition for military service, rather than a benefit tied to income, rank, or bureaucracy.

Details on timing and implementation are still forthcoming, but the announcement positions the dividend as a one-time payout tied to service, not politics.

Translation: Sending money directly to the people who defend the country is about as controversial as it should ever get — which is to say, it shouldn’t be. After everything they give up, a check isn’t extravagant. It’s the bare minimum.

Personal finance expert Dave Ramsey argued that America’s wealth and comfort have led many people to become undisciplined with money and slow to take responsibility for their problems. Speaking on The Ramsey Show, he emphasized the power of choice, personal initiative, and changing bad habits — regardless of income level.

Ramsey noted that even modest earnings in the U.S. place people among the world’s wealthiest, pointing out that an income of $34,000 puts someone in the top 1% globally. His broader point: America’s prosperity has lowered the urgency to manage money well.

Translation: America is so rich that even being bad with money doesn’t always hurt right away. That comfort can mask poor decisions — until it doesn’t. Ramsey’s message isn’t about shaming income levels; it’s about reminding people that opportunity still requires effort, discipline, and personal responsibility.

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski shared blunt career advice in a recent Instagram video, telling followers to stop waiting for someone else to manage their professional success. Speaking to nearly 50,000 viewers, he emphasized personal responsibility over mentorship fantasies or corporate hand-holding.

He put it plainly: nobody cares about your career as much as you do — and if you want things to change, you have to make them happen yourself.

Translation: There is no secret committee tracking your potential. No one is quietly “looking out for you.” If you want the promotion, the raise, or the next opportunity, it’s on you to own it and move first.

A Los Angeles Dodgers fan who caught one of Shohei Ohtani’s most historic home run balls has decided to take his chances at auction after rejecting a $2 million offer. David Flores caught the ball during Game 4 of the NLCS, a night many fans described as one of the greatest performances in baseball history.

Flores says he’s now consigning the ball to auction with Goldin, run by Ken Goldin, with bidding set to open December 23. After initially being flooded with private offers, he opted not to sell outright and instead see what the open market decides.

Translation: When someone offers you $2 million and you say “nah, let’s see what happens,” you’re either reckless… or very confident in capitalism. Either way, this is the free market in its purest form: a baseball, a bidding war, and one fan betting big on Shohei Ohtani’s legacy.

Actress Patricia Heaton says high taxes, rising crime, and widespread homelessness pushed her to leave Los Angeles after more than three decades in the city. Speaking on The Rubin Report, the three-time Emmy winner explained that the cost of staying no longer made sense — professionally or personally.

Heaton said she and her family relocated to Nashville, noting that work has increasingly taken her outside of California while conditions in Los Angeles continued to deteriorate.

Translation: When even Hollywood veterans decide Los Angeles isn’t worth the price anymore, it’s not a political statement — it’s a math problem. People go where life is safer, taxes are lower, and work actually happens. The exits keep filling up.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio voiced support for the Trump administration’s proposal to create investment accounts for children, joining other wealthy backers including Michael Dell. Dalio announced a $75 million donation that would fund $250 investment contributions for 300,000 children in Connecticut, with the administration encouraging similar efforts nationwide.

Dalio said the accounts would help introduce children to financial literacy, long-term investing, and how capitalism works over time, framing the initiative as a way to build financial independence from an early age.

Translation: Teaching kids how money grows beats lecturing them about money problems. Compound interest doesn’t care about politics — and giving young Americans a stake in investing early may be one of the simplest ways to build long-term financial confidence.

Dan Bongino confirmed he is resigning as FBI Deputy Director, saying he will officially leave the role in January. In a statement, Bongino thanked President Trump, Attorney General Bondi, and FBI Director Patel for the opportunity to serve, adding that it was a privilege to serve the American people.

The announcement came just hours after President Trump hinted at Bongino’s departure while speaking to reporters, suggesting Bongino planned to return to his talk show.

Translation: Bongino went into government, did the job, and decided it was time to go back to the microphone. Whether it’s coincidence or choreography, the timing raised eyebrows — and reminded everyone that in Washington, exits are rarely quiet.

Whatever you celebrate — Christmas, Hanukkah, something quieter, or nothing at all — if you believe in America, and still want this country to succeed, we hope you get a few good days with the people who actually matter to you.

This is the one week of the year where everyone should probably calm down a bit.

Do something decent.
Help someone without posting about it.
Build people up instead of tearing them down for sport.

Give a gift with no expectation attached.
Buy a meal for someone who needs it.
Donate to a charity that actually does the work.
Text the person you’ve been meaning to text but never quite get around to.

Invite the person you didn’t think of — the one who’d never ask, but would absolutely appreciate it.
Surprise someone just because you can.

And yes — eat too much.
Drink too much.
Have dessert even if you already said you were “full.”

Because in about five minutes, those same people will be posting about Dry January, joining gyms, buying new water bottles, and telling you this is finally the year everything changes.

Enjoy this part while it lasts.

Now zoom out.

2025 has been a grind. Loud. Exhausting. A full-contact sport.
We’ll do a proper year-in-review in our final message of the year next week.

But for now — enjoy the pause.
Reset a little.

Merry Christmas. Happy Holidays.